DataBaseball
2026
Nathan Church headshot

Players · C · CF · 2026

Nathan Church

Age
26
B/T
L/L
Height
5' 10"
Weight
180 lb
Number
#27
Born
July 12, 2000 in Newport Beach, CA, United States
MLB debut
August 17, 2025
Drafted
2022, round 11
College
UC Irvine
dbWAR
.8
2 season(s)
PA
463
AVG
.251
OBP
.294
SLG
.370
wRC+
86
100 = avg

Nathan Church is a center fielder for the St. Louis Cardinals. So far in 2026 he has hit 10 home runs and knocked in 50 RBIs, notching 107 hits across 463 plate appearances in 131 games. His batting average is .251, 2.7% higher than the league average of .244. He reached base at a .294 clip and slugged .370, for an OPS of .664, 7.5% lower than the league mark of .719 — 9th of 18 on his team, and 306th of 462 among MLB batters with 100+ plate appearances. He averaged 83.9 mph off the bat, hit 30.1% of balls in play at 95 mph or better, barrelled 4.5% of them and made contact on 79.9% of his swings. Adjusted for his ballpark and league, his 86 wRC+ puts his offence 14% below average. That comes to 0.9 dbWAR — -9.5 runs with the bat, +1.1 for the ballpark, -0.7 on the bases, +2.2 on double plays, +1.5 for the position he plays, against replacement level. It includes no fielding: defensive runs are proprietary and are not estimated here, so the figure credits playing a demanding position but not playing it well.

League context

Percentile among qualified batters, 2026.

wRC+86
wOBA.294
ISO.119
BB%5.4%
WAR.9

How the WAR is built

Runs above replacement, 2026. These terms sum to +9.0 runs, divided by runs-per-win to give WAR. There is no fielding term.

Batting-9.5Ballpark+1.1Baserunning-0.7Double plays+2.2Position+1.5Replacement+14.3
BattingBallparkBaserunningDouble playsPositionReplacement

WAR by season

0.90.4-0.22526

Batting

Standard and advanced, by season.

Trend
2026STL1314631071050102578.251.294.370.119.2815.4%16.8%.294-9.5860.9
2025STL196510181318.179.254.250.071.2374.6%27.7%.234-4.444-0.2

Platoon splits

How he hits left- and right-handed pitching.

Batting by the hand the pitcher throws with, 2026. Counted from play-by-play, so totals can differ from the box-score season line by a plate appearance or two.
SplitPAABHHRBBSOAVGOBPSLGwOBAK%
vs LHP10293222614.237.287.333.27813.7%
vs RHP3613348581964.254.296.380.29817.7%

Spray chart

Where every ball he put in play landed, 2026.

Loading 353 batted balls…

Contact quality

How hard and at what angle he hits it, over 355 tracked batted balls in 2026. Percentiles are against qualified batters.

Barrel rate
4.5%
16 barrels
Exit velocity
83.9
mph average
Max exit velo
110.1
mph, hardest hit
Hard hit
30.1%
95 mph or better
Sweet spot
35.4%
8–32° launch
Launch angle
12.7°
average
Barrel rate4.5%
Exit velocity83.9 mph
Hard hit rate30.1%
Contact rate79.9%

A barrel is a batted ball whose exit velocity and launch angle have historically produced at least a .500 average and 1.500 slugging — 98 mph within 26–30°, widening to 8–50° by 116 mph. Reconstructed from Statcast's published anchor points, which reproduces them exactly; the interior is within a degree. Sweet spot (8–32°) is an exact definition.

Hot and cold zones

Batting average by pitch location, 2026.

.258.200.241.216.10020 AB.28628 AB.30010 AB.25036 AB.25044 AB.26534 AB.18832 AB.37837 AB.28628 AB
Below averageLeague averageAbove average
Batting average by location of the pitch that ended each plate appearance, catcher's view. The bordered square is the strike zone; the outer band is chase territory. Cells with fewer than 8 at-bats are left grey rather than shown as signal. League average on the same attribution is .243.

Situational hitting

How Nathan Church hits by base state, outs, score and late-game pressure — each read against his own season line.

Split by
By who is on base when he comes up. The season line is repeated as the baseline.
SituationPAABHHRRBIBBSOAVGOBPSLGwOBA
All situations463——————.251.294.370.294
Bases empty26223957342049.238.302.326.285
Runner on first999426410412.277.313.436.328
Runners on20118850746529.266.285.426.305
RISP1029424336117.255.257.415.282

Runners on includes runners in scoring position, which is the convention every reference uses. Counted from play-by-play, 2026.

Head to head

Put Nathan Church beside up to three others.

Compare — add up to 3 more players
Nathan Church

Similar players

Nearest 2026 seasons by discipline, contact, power and speed, on rate statistics rather than totals.

How these are computed

wOBA uses linear weights measured from this season's own play-by-play rather than published constants, and wRC+ is park-adjusted against that same league. dbWAR is our own open implementation — not fWAR or bWAR — and the full derivation, including its simplifications, is on the methodology page.