DataBaseball
2026
Carson Kelly headshot

Players · K · C · 2026

Carson Kelly

Age
32
B/T
R/R
Height
6' 1"
Weight
212 lb
Number
#15
Born
July 14, 1994 in Chicago, IL, United States
MLB debut
September 5, 2016
Drafted
2012, round 2
High school
Westview
Salary, 2026
$5M
dbWAR
9.5
15 season(s)
PA
425
AVG
.258
OBP
.336
SLG
.376
wRC+
102
100 = avg

Carson Kelly is a catcher for the Chicago Cubs. So far in 2026 he has hit 10 home runs and knocked in 58 RBIs, notching 98 hits across 425 plate appearances in 116 games. His batting average is .258, 5.7% higher than the league average of .244. He reached base at a .336 clip and slugged .376, for an OPS of .713, 0.8% lower than the league mark of .719 — 9th of 13 on his team, and 207th of 462 among MLB batters with 100+ plate appearances. He averaged 86.7 mph off the bat, hit 36.1% of balls in play at 95 mph or better, barrelled 4.8% of them and made contact on 80.2% of his swings. Adjusted for his ballpark and league, his 102 wRC+ puts his offence 2% above average. That comes to 1.8 dbWAR — +1.4 runs with the bat, -0.2 for the ballpark, -1.1 on the bases, -1.1 on double plays, +5.7 for the position he plays, against replacement level. It includes no fielding: defensive runs are proprietary and are not estimated here, so the figure credits playing a demanding position but not playing it well.

League context

Percentile among qualified batters, 2026.

wRC+102
wOBA.322
ISO.118
BB%9.4%
WAR1.8

How the WAR is built

Runs above replacement, 2026. These terms sum to +17.7 runs, divided by runs-per-win to give WAR. There is no fielding term.

Batting+1.4Ballpark-0.2Baserunning-1.1Double plays-1.1Position+5.7Replacement+12.9
BattingBallparkBaserunningDouble playsPositionReplacement

WAR by season

2.61.1-0.41617181920212223242526

Batting

Standard and advanced, by season.

Trend
2026CHC11642598105804070.258.336.376.118.2939.4%16.5%.322+1.41021.8
2025CHC10942192175024580.249.333.428.179.27210.7%19.0%.334+6.61142.6
2024DET/TEX853136793702555.238.313.374.135.2668.0%17.6%.306-1.4961.3
2023AZ/DET471512821311440.206.278.287.081.2749.3%26.5%.257-8.057-0.0
2022AZ973546773522971.211.282.334.123.2478.2%20.1%.277-9.9760.9
2021AZ9735973134604474.240.343.411.171.27012.3%20.6%.332+4.61081.8
2020AZ38129275190629.221.264.385.164.2504.7%22.5%.280-4.6700.3
2019AZ11036577184704879.245.348.478.232.27113.2%21.6%.343+6.21142.1
2018STL1542403037.114.205.114.000.1437.1%16.7%.163-5.3-8-0.3
2017STL347512060511.174.240.217.043.2076.7%14.7%.213-7.024-0.4
2016STL714201002.154.214.231.077.1820.0%14.3%.205-1.322-0.1

Pitching

Standard and advanced, by season.

Trend
2026CHC303.000042006.0011.771.330.00.0144282-0.2
2023AZ/DET302.2000931110.138.513.753.43.4234196-0.1
2022AZ404.200094027.717.182.360.03.9194181-0.2
2020AZ101.000010000.003.191.000.00.00720.0

Platoon splits

How he hits left- and right-handed pitching.

Batting by the hand the pitcher throws with, 2026. Counted from play-by-play, so totals can differ from the box-score season line by a plate appearance or two.
SplitPAABHHRBBSOAVGOBPSLGwOBAK%
vs LHP1361213661524.298.375.496.38217.6%
vs RHP2892596242546.239.318.320.29415.9%
Opponent batting by the side the hitter bats from, 2026. Counted from play-by-play, so totals can differ from the box-score season line by a plate appearance or two.
SplitPAABHHRBBSOAVGOBPSLGwOBAK%
vs LHB551000.200.200.200.1790.0%
vs RHB883200.375.3751.125.6180.0%

Spray chart

Where every ball he put in play landed, 2026.

Loading 309 batted balls…

Contact quality

How hard and at what angle he hits it, over 310 tracked batted balls in 2026. Percentiles are against qualified batters.

Barrel rate
4.8%
15 barrels
Exit velocity
86.7
mph average
Max exit velo
108.4
mph, hardest hit
Hard hit
36.1%
95 mph or better
Sweet spot
31.9%
8–32° launch
Launch angle
13.3°
average
Barrel rate4.8%
Exit velocity86.7 mph
Hard hit rate36.1%
Contact rate80.2%

A barrel is a batted ball whose exit velocity and launch angle have historically produced at least a .500 average and 1.500 slugging — 98 mph within 26–30°, widening to 8–50° by 116 mph. Reconstructed from Statcast's published anchor points, which reproduces them exactly; the interior is within a degree. Sweet spot (8–32°) is an exact definition.

Hot and cold zones

Batting average by pitch location, 2026.

.208.083.235.094.11526 AB.25831 AB.32128 AB.36433 AB.35448 AB.29737 AB.41217 AB.25643 AB.21932 AB
Below averageLeague averageAbove average
Batting average by location of the pitch that ended each plate appearance, catcher's view. The bordered square is the strike zone; the outer band is chase territory. Cells with fewer than 8 at-bats are left grey rather than shown as signal. League average on the same attribution is .243.

Situational hitting

How Carson Kelly hits by base state, outs, score and late-game pressure — each read against his own season line.

Split by
By who is on base when he comes up. The season line is repeated as the baseline.
SituationPAABHHRRBIBBSOAVGOBPSLGwOBA
All situations425——————.258.336.376.322
Bases empty21619548551834.246.319.349.304
Runner on first867519021015.253.349.280.299
Runners on209185505532236.270.354.405.342
RISP123110315511221.282.358.491.371

Runners on includes runners in scoring position, which is the convention every reference uses. Counted from play-by-play, 2026.

Pitch sequencing

What Carson Kelly throws in each count, and what he follows each pitch with. Select any cell for the breakdown.

ShowBatter
Fastball

Select a count to see exactly what Carson Kelly throws in it.

Pitch arsenal

What he throws, how hard, how often it misses, and what hitters do with it.

Fastball100.0%2964.81,48724.1%0.0%13——
Carson Kelly's arsenal by usage. Velocity is average release speed in mph, spin in rpm, and whiff rate is misses per swing — the cleanest single measure of whether a pitch beats hitters. BAA and OPS are what hitters did against each pitch, credited to the one that ended the plate appearance, and are left blank under 15 at-bats.

Head to head

Put Carson Kelly beside up to three others.

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Carson Kelly

Similar players

Nearest 2026 seasons by discipline, contact, power and speed, on rate statistics rather than totals.

How these are computed

wOBA uses linear weights measured from this season's own play-by-play rather than published constants, and wRC+ is park-adjusted against that same league. dbWAR is our own open implementation — not fWAR or bWAR — and the full derivation, including its simplifications, is on the methodology page.